Profile for dtayls

Name	dtayls
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2020-10-03 04:41:53

Re: qtVlm thread

Board » Technical Support

Interesting. I wasn't aware of the 'selection tool'. I'll have to give it a go.
2020-10-03 04:34:24

Re: Weather - Brain Storm

Board » General Discussion

I agree with you @Zorba that "random factors should come from the weather itself".

As you know I like the idea of using a different and more accurate model (perhaps ECMWF) for the underlying simulation but that might depend on gaining access to a high quality model to which most users do not have access.

Another approach might be to introduce a certain degree of randomness in to the simulation's weather model, but what should the source of this randomness be?

One option would be to choose a random mix of two or more models. This could be (a) fixed for the whole race or (b) change over time or (c) vary by lat&lon across the GRIB or (d) both meaning <x,y,t>.

If model volatility or uncertainty GRIBs were available then this could also be used to add a little to the randomness model but I suspect many would consider this to be a step too far
2020-10-01 03:03:21

Re: Weather - Brain Storm

Board » General Discussion

While they do indeed say "you will need to accept the terms of the ECMWF Standard licence and pay for the associated data and handling costs." what if that cost was $0 or the equivalent in Euros? I think you will find that their licensing model depends very much on how the data is to be used. The fact that SOL is a not-for-profit, that the data would not be made available for download to end users, and that we would not require 24x7 support might all have a big impact on the quoted price. Maybe someone should contact them and request a quote.

As it stands in SOL we are given perfect weather information for each 6 hour window which is a little unrealistic. What's more, some people know the idiosyncrasies of how the SOL server interprets the data and are therefore able to use that knowledge to their advantage. Is this really fair? And given that we allow this and the use of routers then we'd might as well allow full autopilot control of our boats!

If there is instability in in the weather then I would expect the underlying weather to reflect that and probably differ from the predictions. Those who understand the weather the best will generally make the best decisions and may even have a chance at winning over those who can drive the tools to perfection.

Ideally the underlying weather model used in the SOL simulation is based on the most accurate available. But some people may have access to this unless we 'rule' it out. So maybe we could also introduce some variations in to areas where the model is unstable. Again, this could be fun
2020-09-29 00:27:13

Re: Weather - Brain Storm

Board » General Discussion

VIbex: The key to my idea is to use an underlying weather model for the simulation which powers our virtual boats that is different from the predictions available to SOL competitors.

I agree when you say "we're not actually living on the boats so you need some measure of predictability" but I don't think that means we need to be able to 100% predict the weather.

When the weather is very stable and highly predictable then the models will likely be very closely aligned. In those cases it might be safe to sail very close to a mark or an island, but when the weather is less stable you might choose a wider safety margin over absolute performance.

As for the question of using 'rules' to control which models can or can't be used, there is always going to be someone who wants to cheat.

Ideally, I like the idea of using something like a pre-release beta version of the ECMWF model not generally available except to researchers, if such a thing exists. Another alternative might be a psuedo-random merge of multiple model GRIBs ... This could be a fun project
2020-09-27 00:57:45

Re: Weather - Brain Storm

Board » General Discussion

ij said @ 2020-09-10 20:03:13:

Also, they explicitly mention not-for-profits in their license selection guidance so you're just dreaming and there's little point in trying to ask anything from them.
--
i.

Is it possible to get access to the ECMWF model for internal use only on the server while using the GFS model in the gribs provided to users?

It seems to me that this would fit the licencing requirements for the not-for-profit use of the real-time ECMWF data.

It would also be closer to reality in that the underlying model used on the server would be different to the forecasts available to users.

There may also be a need for a new SOL rule that makes it illegal to use commercial paid-for products not available to all users for free.

I think this would make for some more interesting racing.
2020-09-26 12:13:06

Re: AGL14 Releases

Board » Technical Discussion

dtayls said @ 2020-09-07 04:13:07:

14.2.3 doesn't seem to automatically download GRIBs anymore

Looks like this only affected the Mel-to-Osaka race. Seems to work perfectly in other races. How bizarre!
2020-09-26 11:32:29

Merge of steering and DC tabs

Board » General Discussion

I really like @Zorba's idea of merging the 'steering' and 'DC' tabs. Maybe allow for 8-10 lines of DCs bacause if anyone is using more then they are probably using other tools to generate them.

It would also help to be able to set an actual time rather than just a delay period.
2020-09-26 11:26:04

Extended predictors - Suggestion re the hourly indicators

Board » General Discussion

Love the new extended predictors. Thanks @ij.

One small suggestion: Hourly indicators are open circles. Perhaps fill every 6-hourly circle to make a large dot. This would help in interpreting the longer predictors.

The longer predictors will be really helpful when training up those new to SOL. The curly-whirly patterns can be very instructive.
2020-09-07 04:13:07

Re: AGL14 Releases

Board » Technical Discussion

14.2.3 doesn't seem to automatically download GRIBs anymore

This might help explain it:

Exception in thread "Thread-1" java.lang.NullPointerException
at grib.GribFactory.waitForGrib(GribFactory.java:215)
at grib.GribFactory.run(GribFactory.java:146)
at java.base/java.lang.Thread.run(Unknown Source)

--- Last Edited by dtayls at 2020-09-07 04:30:17 ---
2020-04-22 23:11:23

Re: Poetry Saved for Posterity

Board » General Discussion

Pushing haiku to new limits:

Laozi *pokes
bonknhoot
what the *

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